A Posteriori Random Forests for Stochastic Downscaling of Precipitation by Predicting Probability Distributions
نویسندگان
چکیده
This work presents a comprehensive assessment of the suitability random forests, well-known machine learning technique, for statistical downscaling precipitation. Building on experimental and validation framework proposed in Experiment 1 COST action VALUE—the largest, most exhaustive intercomparison study methods to date—we introduce thoroughly analyze posteriori forests (AP-RFs), which use all information contained leaves reliably predict shape scale parameters gamma probability distribution precipitation wet days. Therefore, as opposed traditional typically provide deterministic predictions, our AP-RFs allow realistic stochastic samples be generated Indeed, compared one particular implementation generalized linear model that exhibited an overall good performance VALUE, yield better distributional similarity with observations without loss predictive power. Noteworthy, new methodology this paper has substantial potential hydrologists other impact communities are need local-scale, reliable climate information.
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ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: Water Resources Research
سال: 2022
ISSN: ['0043-1397', '1944-7973']
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1029/2021wr030272